June 2026
Over the past year, I’ve been asked the same question many times.
Sometimes by developers. Sometimes by homeowners. Sometimes by friends who have nothing to do with real estate.
The question is usually some variation of:
What’s happening to the market?
Will things recover?
Is development still viable?
Should we wait?
Somewhere along the way, architects seem to have become part-time market analysts.
I understand the concern. This is not an easy market. Sales have slowed. Financing is more complicated. Construction costs remain high. We hear stories about projects being delayed, cancelled, or restructured.
But after nearly two decades working in Vancouver, what I see on the ground is often a little different from what I read in the headlines.
The mix of projects has changed. Some sectors are quieter than before. Others feel more active than ever. Some firms are slowing down. Others are hiring.
How can people be looking at the same market and come away with such different conclusions?
I’ve been thinking about that a lot lately.
I think it’s because “the market” is rarely one thing.
It’s a collection of smaller markets, each responding differently to changing conditions.
This is now the third major downturn I’ve experienced during my career. That’s probably more experience with downturns than I ever hoped to have.
Each cycle felt different.
The downturn of the early 1990s was shaped by high interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis was driven by a sudden contraction in credit. The pandemic brought uncertainty unlike anything most of us had experienced before.
Today’s market feels different again.
This time, several forces are arriving at once: higher financing costs, elevated construction costs, changing housing demand, and evolving government policies.
And yet, when I look around, I don’t see an industry that has stopped moving.
Government-supported housing projects continue to move forward. First Nations developments continue to gain momentum. Community-serving projects are still being planned and built.
The challenges are real.
But so is the work.
I’ve always liked the analogy of the tide.
The tide doesn’t stop going out because we prefer high tide.
The most useful response isn’t to fight it. And it certainly isn’t to avoid the water altogether.
It’s to understand what’s happening, adapt to it, and move with it.
Markets work much the same way.
Cycles are part of the landscape. They create opportunities. They create challenges. And sometimes they reveal things that were easy to ignore during stronger markets.
When markets are rising, many weaknesses remain hidden. High leverage, unclear product positioning, and poor risk management can often be masked by growth.
When the market slows, those weaknesses become visible.
Every downturn acts as a filter.
Some participants leave the industry. Others adapt and emerge stronger.
Whenever people ask me when the market will recover, I usually disappoint them.
I don’t know.
And honestly, I don’t think that’s the most useful question.
A better question might be:
What is changing, and how should we respond to it?
Because cycles are inevitable.
They arrive. They leave. And eventually another one follows.
Today’s market feels different, but I don’t believe we are witnessing an ending.
I think we are witnessing a transition.